Marine heatwave Bulletin
Forecasts for 21 February 2026 ​

Key takeaways

Mediterranean Sea – marine heatwave remains stable regarding intensity and geographical extent.

South Pacificmarine heatwaves off the west coast of South America and northeast of New Zealand are is increasing in size and in intensity.

Southern Ocean – marine heatwave increasing in intensity but remaining stable in extent.

 

Waves

Marine heatwave categories

European region 

Marine heatwave categories forecast for 21 February, 2026. European zone. Credit: Mercator Ocean International

Mediterranean Sea

 The extent and the intensity of the marine heatwaves in both basins is mostly stable. The marine heatwaves intensity is strong between Sardinia and Italy. 

Global Ocean

Marine heatwave categories forecast for 21 February, 2026. Global Ocean. Credit: Mercator Ocean International

North Atlantic

The area covered by marine heatwaves present in the Caribbean in the middle of the basin has decreased compared to last week, with moderate and strong categories.

South Atlantic

A moderate marine heatwave is developing off the coast of the Gulf of Guinea. The one located around 15°W is decreasing in size.

North Pacific

The marine heatwave in the central northern part of the basin is stable in terms of both extent and intensity, with moderate and strong categories still present. From central Indonesia to Eastern Papua New Guinea, marine heatwaves are spreading, with several areas categorized as strong. In the center of the basin, marine heatwaves are stable in extent and area, but the one west of the North American coast is decreasing in area and intensity, with only a few moderate categories remaining. 

South Pacific

The marine heatwave off the west coast of South America is increasing in size and intensity, with moderate and strong categories remaining, as well as the appearance of a few severe category areas. The marine heatwave northeast of New Zealand is extending to the Samoa Islands with an increase of strong category areas.  

Southern Ocean

The marine heatwave present between 60°E and 120°E is stable in intensity but increasing in intensity, mainly with strong categories. 

 

Weekly temperature anomalies

 

Average sea surface temperature anomalies for the week of the 15 to 21 February 2026.
Mediterranean Sea 0 °C to 2°C 
North Atlantic -3< °C to 2°C 
South Atlantic -2°C to >2°C 
North Pacific -1.5°C to >3°C 
South Pacific -1°C to 3°C  
Southern Ocean -0.5°C to 1.5°C 

Forecasts for 21 February 2026

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NOTES

Datasets and products: Global Ocean Physics Analysis and Forecast (sea surface temperature) E.U. Copernicus Marine Service/ Mercator Ocean International. https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00016